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Predictions 2003

Major trends in world events 2003 forecast in January

Predictions 2003

1. The Rise of the "Strategic Triangle"
The alliance between Russia, China and India will emerge as a genuine threat in the western psyche. The actual threat is a long term economic one, but it will be interpreted by the some as a military threat. This may eventually return us a new cold war.

Watch for:
- China taking sides with North Korea
- Disagreements between Russia and the US over Central Asia or Iran
- China's actions towards Taiwan
- Increased media focus on Russia's nuclear arsenal
- South American alliances with Russia


2. Crisis in the US
Loss of confidence domestically and internationally will gather pace and culminate in a devalued US dollar. A stock market crash, major bankruptcies, or a crisis related to debt are all on the cards this year. This may see hasty government reactions that will distract from or delay the inevitable. There will be an upsurge in domestic instability and increased alienation of the US on the international scene.

Watch for:
- A slide in dollar against a stronger Euro
- International Trade disputes
- Civil unrest
- Market Crashes or Interventions
- A jump in unemployment


3. Invasion of Iraq failed or abandoned.
The distractions of the new Asia threat will overshadow the "urgency" of the Iraq threat. The risks of fighting two wars will be too hard for Bush to sell a war to the US public and Western allies. An isolated event such as a major terrorist attack in the US or Israel may encourage the US to continue beyond the air strikes to an invasion. If so, there will be unexpected losses of US troops and a protracted, unsuccessful occupation.

Watch for:
- Reduced enthusiasm for war in UK and Australia.
- Opinion Polls showing less support for war
- Russian opposition to US activity in the Midde East
- Increased activity by Mossad
- Nuclear threats by Israel's Prime Minister

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