Major trends in world
events 2003 forecast in January
The Rise of the "Strategic Triangle"
The alliance between Russia, China
and India will emerge as a genuine threat in the western psyche.
The actual threat is a long term economic one, but it will be
interpreted by the some
as a military threat. This may eventually return us a new cold
- China taking sides with North Korea
- Disagreements between Russia and the US over Central Asia or
- China's actions towards Taiwan
- Increased media focus on Russia's nuclear arsenal
- South American alliances with Russia
Crisis in the US
Loss of confidence domestically and internationally will gather
pace and culminate in a devalued US dollar. A stock market crash,
major bankruptcies, or a crisis related to debt are all on the
cards this year. This may see hasty government reactions that
will distract from or delay the inevitable. There will be an
upsurge in domestic instability and increased alienation of the
US on the international scene.
- A slide in dollar against a stronger Euro
- International Trade disputes
- Civil unrest
- Market Crashes or Interventions
- A jump in unemployment
Invasion of Iraq failed or abandoned.
The distractions of the new Asia threat will overshadow the "urgency"
of the Iraq threat. The risks of fighting two wars will be too
hard for Bush to sell a war to the US public and Western allies.
An isolated event such as a major terrorist attack in the US
or Israel may encourage the US to continue beyond the air strikes
to an invasion. If so, there will be unexpected losses of US
troops and a protracted, unsuccessful occupation.
- Reduced enthusiasm for war in UK and Australia.
- Opinion Polls showing less support for war
- Russian opposition to US activity in the Midde East
- Increased activity by Mossad
- Nuclear threats by Israel's Prime Minister